Nursing places in demand: A challenge for Germany until 2040!

Nursing places in demand: A challenge for Germany until 2040!

The need for nursing places remains high in Germany. According to a recent report by IZ the situation will get even worse in the coming years. According to a forecast by Wüest Partner, an additional need of almost 146,000 nursing places is expected by 2040. This represents a significant challenge for the care industry, which is already under pressure.

This increase is particularly clear in Munich, where the Langwied Foundation's senior citizens' residence offers care places and assisted living. According to experts, the city is struggling with a significant increase in the population in need of care. While 5.69 million people across Germany were already in need of care in 2023 - an increase of 15 percent since 2021 - the regional differences in the need for care places cannot be overlooked.

Regional differences and challenges

The differences between the federal states are particularly striking. In eastern Germany, such as Thuringia with a care rate of 9.1 percent, the pressure on care facilities is enormous. Significant growth in the need for care is also forecast in Bavaria, with an additional need of over 27,100 places by 2040. In North Rhine-Westphalia, an increase of 28,900 places is even expected. At the municipal level, Berlin needs 3,849 new places, Hamburg 1,649 and the Hanover region 1,527.

Another issue is rising costs. Loud Real estate manager The monthly costs per care place increased by around 500 euros to an average of 3,000 euros. A third of residents in inpatient facilities are dependent on social assistance, which puts additional strain on the social viability of care.

Looking for future-proof solutions

The data of the Nursing home atlas from Wüest Partner, which is based on updated statistics, show that the number of nursing homes in Germany is not keeping pace with growing demands. Although the number of nursing homes rose by 2.4 percent to 16,505 in 2023, the available places only grew by 0.4 percent. Around half of existing care facilities do not meet current ESG and construction standards, with numerous deficiencies in terms of accessibility and technical efficiency.

This situation urgently requires energy-saving renovations and sustainable usage concepts. It's not just the existing facilities that are facing the challenge; It is also crucial that new models, such as alternative forms of living in the area of ​​assisted living, are further promoted. Average rental prices for assisted living are even up to 50 percent above the local rent index, which further fuels the discussion about accessibility and affordability.

The operator landscape will also have to streamline. Larger carriers are increasingly securing their market shares, while smaller providers are coming under pressure and have to consolidate. It is becoming increasingly important for investors to keep an eye on the creditworthiness, operating history and, above all, staff retention of the facilities.

It remains to be seen how the situation will develop, but one thing is clear: There is something going on in the care industry and innovative solutions are needed to successfully cope with the increasing need for care places in the coming years.