China's industry on the abyss: Trump's tariffs cause dramatic break -ins!

China's industry on the abyss: Trump's tariffs cause dramatic break -ins!

Am Hart, Deutschland - The tariffs against China introduced by Donald Trump have noticeable effects on the processing industry in the Middle Kingdom. In May 2023, the industry experienced the worst decline since September 2022. The Caixin shopping manager index (PMI) fell from 50.4 in April to 48.3 in May, which made it under the critical 50 mark, which distinguishes between growth and shrinkage. This decline comes at a time when analysts are already forecasting a decline in demand, which also contains the Situation. Wang Zhe, the Senior Economist at the Caixin Insight Group, commented concerns about the decline in supply and demand, which is strongly influenced by the estate foreign demand, as the financial market world reports.

The results of the private examination are weaker than the official PMI values ​​that are raised between 22 and 25 of a month. Becky Liu from the Standard Chartered Bank found that the tariffs, especially small and medium -sized companies, burden them disproportionately. This is also shown in the index values ​​listed at the front, which are below the estimates of a Bloomberg survey that indicates a median of 50.7

global effects and decline in business

The tariffs are not only a problem for Chinese exporters, but also affect the global economy. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) has already reduced its forecast for global growth. Instead of 3.3 percent in 2024, growth of only 2.9 percent is now expected for this year. OECD chief economist Álvaro Santos Pereira explains that increasing trade unconcursions impair the trust of consumers and investors.

In addition, the trade war between the USA and China has reached a critical point. Both countries have imposed tariffs of over 100 percent on the imports of the other, which significantly increased the trade. Analysts see an increased risk of recession both in the USA and global. And the prospects are not better either: Trump's tariffs could not only brake exports, but ultimately also let the economy grow.

China's answer to the customs shock

china must therefore give itself a good hand in his economic strategy. In order to compensate for the effects of the customs shock, Beijing could fall back on domestic economic measures. So far, 81 percent of sales have come from internal consumption, which indicates that reorientation in the economy is also necessary. In order to help small and medium -sized companies, the government could plan subsidies and other support measures.

In addition, experts expect the Central Business Conference of the Chinese government to explain concrete measures in mid -December to boost internal demand. The growth in 2025 will therefore be decisive on the internal market - a task that offers both challenges and opportunities. A completely new focus on the inland economy could help the country to assert itself in an increasingly uncertain trade landscape.

Overall, it can be seen that the trade war does not only take place on paper; The effects are now clearly noticeable for everyone. The coming weeks and months will be crucial to observe whether China can gain the required buoyancy from his domestic demand, while the tariffs float like a Damocles sword over exports.

summarized it can be said that the development will influence many facets of the global and local economy in the coming months and that we will surely follow how the situation will continue to develop here in Munich.